[Birdtalk] A fun little game: The NEXT 10

[David Wheeler]

OK, I have found my predictions for the "Next ten" from 1999, complete
with reasoning from back then (ones with X in front of them have now
been added to the state list):
 

X  Scaled quail (+) Range directly adjacent to SE Utah.  Reports of the
species in Blanding.   (-) questions of introduced birds.
X  Eurasian collared dove (+) Spreading quickly toward Utah.
✔ Whip-poor-will (+) Several reported heard in SW Utah.  Range close to
Utah.
X  Ruby-throated h.b. (+) Breeds N of us & has extensive range in east.
 People watch feeders closely.  (-) Similar to Broad-tailed h.b.
▸ Sprague’s pipit (+) Breeds north of us & migrates close/through UT to
S of us.   (-) Tough to differentiate between Am. pipit.
▸ Cape May warbler (+) Breeds north of us.  Distinctive.  Casual
throughout West.   (-) Migration path and destination far east of us.
X  Canyon towhee (-) Non-migratory.   (+) Resident close to both
southern corners of Utah.
▸ Sharp-tailed sparrow (-) Somewhat secretive.   (+) Breeds north of
us.  Fairly distinctive.
▸ Baird’s sparrow (-) Secretive, Not very distinctive.   (+) Favorable
migration--breeds north of us, winters south of us.
X  Lawrence’s goldfinch (+) Distinctive.  Highly nomadic in winter
close to S UT.  Breeding range close to SW UT in similar habitat.
 

Runners-up:

X  White ibis (+) Sometimes wanders close to SE Utah.  Highly
identifiable.
✔ Yellow rail (+) Breeds north of us.   (-) Secretive and not apt to be
seen unless people play tapes for it.
✔ Piping plover (+) Breeds north of us & migrates close.   (-) Similar
to Snowy plover.  Declining.
✔ Eastern wood-pewee (+) Common in its extensive range throughout east.
  (-) Difficult to ID unless calls.  Range not close to Utah.
✔ Yellow-bellied flycatcher (+) Breeds north of us & migrates close.  
(-) Difficult to ID.
✔ Alder flycatcher (+) Breeds north of us & migrates close.   (-)
Difficult/impossible to ID unless it calls.
X  Yellow-throated vireo (+) Fairly common in its extensive range
throughout east.   (-) Range not very close to Utah.
X  Philadelphia vireo (+) Breeds north of us & migrates close.   (-)
Difficult to ID.  Uncommon even in breeding range.
✔ Chihuahuan raven (+) Breeds close to Utah to east.  Migratory.   (-)
Very difficult to ID.
✔ Gray-cheeked thrush (+) Breeds north of us & migrates close.   (-)
Difficult to ID.  It would have to be a mist-net ID.
✔ Olive warbler (-) Breeds mid-Arizona but not long-distance migrant.
✔ Black-thr. green warbler (+) Breeds north of us.  Distinctive.
✔ Mourning warbler (+) Breeds north of us, migrates closer to Utah than
Conn. warb.   (-) Confusion with MacGillivray’s.
✔ Red-faced warbler (+) Breeds near S Utah & migrates to similar
habitat.  Reported sighted in AZ near SW Utah.  Distinctive.
✔ Hepatic tanager (+) Breeding range close to southern Utah in similar
habitat.  Migratory.   (-) Similar to Summer tanager.
✔ Eastern meadowlark (-) Difficult to distinguish in the field unless
singing (which is not conclusive).   (+)  Range fairly close to Utah.
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